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The Spanish Mission Legacy on Native American Reservations
Alston, Lee J.; Duggan, Marie Christine; Pastrana, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We explore the long run impact of the Spanish missions on Native American outcomes in the early 20th century. Native communities who interacted with Spanish missionaries developed into enclaves which blended Catholicism with native culture. Some survived assaults on their property rights by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334468
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Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession : an extended Markov-Switching dynamic factor model
Doz, Catherine; Ferrara, Laurent; Pionnier, Pierre-Alain - 2020
need for macroeconomic forecasters to account for sudden and deep recessions, periods of higher macroeconomic volatility … Factor Model (MS-DFM) by incorporating two new features: switches in volatility and time-variation in trend GDP growth. First …, we show that volatility switches largely improve the detection of business cycle turning points in the low-volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227436
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Following the trend : tracking GDP when long-run growth is uncertain
Antolin-Diaz, Juan; Drechsel, Thomas; Petrella, Ivan - 2014
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010461803
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Short-term GDP forecasting with a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility
Marcellino, Massimiliano; Porqueddu, Mario; Venditti, … - In: Journal of business & economic statistics : JBES ; a … 34 (2016) 1, pp. 118-127
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011691233
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Do Government Spending Multipliers Depend on the Sign of the Shock?
Ben Zeev, Nadav; Ramey, Valerie A.; Zubairy, Sarah - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We analyze whether government spending multipliers differ by the sign of the shock. Using aggregate historical U.S. data, we apply Ben Zeev's (2020) nonlinear diagnostic tests and find evidence of nonlinearities in the impulse response functions of both government spending and GDP. We then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247936
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Which types of commodity price information are more useful for predicting US stock market volatility?
Liang, Chao; Ma, Feng; Li, Ziyang; Li, Yan - In: Economic modelling 93 (2020), pp. 642-650
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012430321
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Keeping track of global trade in real time
Martínez-Martín, Jaime; Rusticelli, Elena - 2018
This paper builds an innovative composite world trade cycle index (WTI) by means of a dynamic factor model to monitor and perform short-term forecasts in real time of world trade growth of both goods and (usually neglected) services. The selection of trade indicator series is made using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011995789
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Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations
Kaufmann, Daniel; Scheufele, Rolf - 2015
We investigate the information content of business tendency surveys for key macroeconomic variables in Switzerland. To summarise the information of a large data set of sectoral business tendency surveys we extract a small number of common factors by a principal components estimator. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508347
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A dynamic factor model of the yield curve components as a predictor of the economy
Chauvet, Marcelle; Senyuz, Zeynep - In: International journal of forecasting 32 (2016) 2, pp. 324-343
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011596830
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Surprise and uncertainty indexes : real-time aggregation of real-activity macro-surprises
Scotti, Chiara - In: Journal of monetary economics 82 (2016), pp. 1-19
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011709471