In this paper we develop a business cycle measure that can be shown to have excellent ex-ante forecasting properties for GDP growth. For identifying business cycle movements, we use a semantic approach. We infer nine different states of the economy directly from firms' responses in business...

The EURO has now been in place for more than two years, but only the future will tell if the ECB policy proves successful in the long-term. Whether the monetary authorities have sufficient information, and more important, the right information to manage the EURO currency, has been an open...