First, the goals and process of model building, including models for learning from data, explaining the past, predicting as yet unobserved data and making policy decisions are discussed. Then attention is given to the important role of nonlinear, dynamic relations in three of my past and one of...

We show that the use of prior information derived from former empirical findings and/or subject matter theory regarding the lag structure of the observable variables together with an AR process for the error terms can produce univariate and single equation models that are intuitively appealing,...

We discuss Bayesian inferential procedures within the family of instrumental variables regression models and focus on two issues: existence conditions for posterior moments of the parameters of interest under a flat prior and the potential of Direct Monte Carlo (DMC) approaches for efficient...

Using several variants of a Marshallian Macroeconomic Model (MMM), see Zellner and Israilevich (2005) and Ngoie and Zellner (2010), this paper investigates how various tax rate reductions may help stimulate the U.S. economy while not adversely affecting aggregate U.S. debt. Variants of our MMM...

This book presents some of Arnold Zellner’s outstanding contributions to the philosophy, theory and application of Bayesian analysis, particularly as it relates to statistics, econometrics and economics.