This study examines stock price reactions, for both U.S. and Canadian softwood-lumber producers, to a series of events culminating in the 1986 Memorandum of Understanding under which Canada agreed to impose a 15 percent export tariff on lumber shipped to the United States. The authors' results...

Daily data on short-term interest rates are used to show how changes in Federal Reserve operating procedures have affected the term structure. Yield spreads were helpful in predicting short-term interest-rate movements during the nonborrowed reserves targeting period (1979-82) but not during the...

New evidence on the correlation between the cycle and the real wage is provided by using panel data to adjust for the aggregation cum selectivity bias that arises when those who move in and out of the work force over the cycle have systematically different unobserved permanent and transitory...

This research compares several approaches to inference in the multinominal profit model, based on two Monte Carlo experiments for a seven choice model. The methods compared are the simulated maximum likelihood estimator using the GHK recursive probability simulator, the method of simulated...

We develop a model of currency crises, in which traders are heterogeneously informed, and interest rates are endogenously determined in a noisy rational expectations equilibrium. In our model, multiple equilibria result from distinct roles an interest rate plays in determining domestic asset...