Frontmatter -- Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- PART I: INTRODUCTION -- 1. Questions about Business Cycles -- PART II: BUSINESS CYCLE DURATIONS -- 2. Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized? -- 3. Shorter Recessions and Longer Expansions -- 4. A Nonparametric Investigation of...

A structural import demand equation is derived and estimated for a large number of countries, using recent time-series techniques that address the problem of nonstationarity. The average price elasticity is close to zero in the short run but is slightly higher than one in the long run. A similar...

The feedback and the autoregressive closed form solution of the consumption function, with the income process allowed to follow a general ARIMA stochastic process, for the quadratic, exponential and Weil's hybrid exponential-isoelastic utility functions are compared. For the exponential and...

A sleepy consensus has emerged that U.S. GNP data are uninformative as to whether trend is better described as deterministic or stochastic. Although the distinction is not critical in some contexts, it is important for point forecasting, because the two models imply very different long-run...

This paper analyzes the borrowing behavior of a small open economy of a Less Developed Country (LDC) that relies heavily on imports for its capital formation and faces an upward sloping supply function of foreign loans, in an environment where decision makers face uncertainty about the longevity...