This paper aims to remedy difficulties with some extant empirical tests of the monetary approach to exchange rate determination. Four problems are addressed: explication of and allowance for real exchange rate changes; imposition of interest parity; use of the forward rate as an unbiased...

This paper develops two models, one involving risk neutrality and the other risk aversion, which suggest that inflation uncertainty affects interest rates. Both models give rise to essentially the same interest rate equation for estimation. Empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that...

This paper critically examines a number of maintained hypotheses that are necessarily being tested along with the basic notion derived from the rational expectations (RE) formulation of Lucas (1972) (19 73) that "only unanticipated money matters." The trend stationary representation of secular...

This note attempts to reconcile contradictory findings regarding the impact of money surprises on short term interest rates. Expectations effects regarding anticipated monetary policy and anticipated inflation suggest a positive relationship. Liquidity and output effects of monetary surprises...

The three major findings of this paper are the following: (1) Programs of monetary restraint tend to result in higher real interest rates because when they are initially implemented, they result in surprise monetary stringency. The magnitude of negative money surprises in the second quarter of...

This paper investigates the hypothesis that surprise changes in the money supply and anticipated inflation (the Mundell-Tobin effect) are both inversely related to the expected real interest rate. The two novel aspects of the investigation are tests of the hypothesized impact of money surprises...