"The business surveys of the ifo Institute (short for ""Information und Forschung"") are internationally renowned. Every month close to 7,000 enterprises are questioned on their short-term planning and their appraisals of the actual and future business situation. The confidence indicator...

Prognosen – einige grundsätzliche Überlegungen -- Daten als Grundlage der Analyse -- Der Konjunkturzyklus: Messung und Datierung -- Konjunkturindikatoren -- Zeitreihenmodelle -- Prognosen mit Strukturmodellen -- Intuitive Prognoseverfahren. - Gemischte Prognoseverfahren. -...

The global financial crisis highlighted the impact on macroeconomic outcomes of recurrent events like business and financial cycles, highs and lows in volatility, and crashes and recessions. At the most basic level, such recurrent events can be summarized using binary indicators showing if the...