Summary Following the influential work of Nelson and Plosser (1982) stochastic trends in macroeconomic time series are considered to be a stylized fact. However, since the stochastic trend hypothesis can be rejected for many economic series if a segmented trend model is considered as an...

Abstract Obwohl die Rechtsfragen zur Vorfälligkeitsentschädigung gegenwärtig bei vielen Darlehensverträgen eine Rolle spielen, gibt es kaum aktuelle Rechtsprechung die den neuen § 609a BGB berücksichtigt. Der Beitrag untersucht zum einen, inwieweit zur Auslegung dieser Vorschrift die...

This comment is focused mainly on the assumption that the HP filter is appropriate for isolating the cyclical component inherent in the time series investigated. It is argued that mechanical filtering can easily generate a spurious impression of cyclical behaviour. Estimating the cyclical...

Although the long-wave phenomenon has long been discussed in economic, social and political sciences, there is still highly controversial discussion about the methods of providing empirical evidence of such swings as regular cycles in economic time series. This article gives an overview about...

Data protection has become an increasingly important aspect of consumer policy in recent years in Germany. One of the most interesting subjects under discussion was that of scoring. Scoring attempts to give a prognosis as to whether a consumer is willing and able to repay a given kind of credit....

A large proportion of today’s econometric literature addresses the question of whether long run GDP follows a random walk or a log linear trend with one or more structural breaks. Much less attention is paid to the modelling of the long run trend and cycle component. In most studies, the trend...

[fre] La réponse à la question de savoir si les cycles longs existent ou non dépend principalement des méthodes statistiques utilisées pour les analyser. Depuis l’article fondateur de Kondratiev dans les années 1920, ces méthodes ont fait l’objet d’importants changements. La...