Recommended readings (Machine generated): 1. Geoffrey H. Moore (1967), 'What is a Recession?', American Statistician, 21 (4), October, 16-9 -- 2. Allan P. Layton and Anirvan Banerji (2003), 'What is a Recession?: A Reprise', Applied Economics, 35 (16), 1789-97 -- 3. Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C....

Ten of thirteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment, three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates do not.

Since the publication (1976) of the classic Lucas critique, researchers in empirical macroeconomics have endeavored to specify models that capture the underlying dynamic decision-making behavior of consumers and firms who require forecasts of future events. Recently, a number of researchers have...

This paper carefully outlines a method for the calculation of average marginal tax rates. The method is applied to Statistics of Income data for dividend and interest income earned by U.S. households from 1954 to 1980. To illustrate the effects these data can have inempirical work, the tax rates...

We examine the potential policy role of monetary aggregates by attempting to use them as effectively as possible in the analysis of empirical relationships. We consider three possible roles: as information variables, as indicators of policy actions and as instruments in a policy rule. These...