"Crop production is subject to supply shocks, and both expected and realized outputs as well as output prices are unknown when inputs are chosen. The process by which producers form expectations is difficult to model, especially when working with aggregate data. We present a necessary and...

In much of the developing world, many farmers grow crops for local or personal consumption despite export options that appear to be more profitable. Thus many conjecture that one or several markets are missing. This paper reports on a randomized controlled trial conducted by DrumNet in Kenya...