"An NBER digest for this paper is available.Researchers estimating the demand for energy-using durable goods must specify consumers' beliefs about future energy prices. Policy-relevant inference hinges on this specification, yet there is little direct evidence on the nature of consumer beliefs....

"When consumers exhibit present bias and are time-inconsistent, the standard solution to market failures caused by externalities-Pigouvian pricing-is suboptimal. I investigate policies aimed at externalities for time-inconsistent consumers. Welfare-maximizing policy in this case includes an...