The prediction of conflict constitutes a challenge to social scientists. This article explores whether the incorporation of geography can help us make our forecasts of political violence more accurate. The authors describe a spatially and temporally autoregressive discrete regression model,...

The authors examine a standard gravity model of international commerce augmented to include political as well as institutional influences on bilateral trade. Using annual data from 1980-2001, they estimate regression coefficients and residual dependencies using a hierarchy of models in each...

In this overview of a new database and approach to measuring distance among historical and contemporary independent nation-states, we review the utility of space to theory and empirical research in international studies. We identify weaknesses in existing empirical data on distances and...

Evidence from Israel suggests that economic growth may benefit from increased investment rates and cuts in defense spending - in other words, an economic `peace dividend'. Recent scholarly work, however, focusing on short-term, direct impacts, has provided little evidence for the existence of...

Nations are said to be behaviorally powerful to the extent they can influence the behavior of other nations. An analytical model of this process is developed based upon the existence of a statistical equilibrium in international political exchange, and its advantages and disadvantages are...

This study examines the dynamics driving domestic political violence in Chile from 1966 to the present, with special emphasis on the growing numbers of dead and disappeared. Two basic structues, both self-reinforcing, are examiend from the perspective of the emergence of a Chilean garrison...

The Polity data are widely used to explore the causes and consequences of democratic authority patterns. These data often have been used uncritically. The authors explore some of the theoretical and empirical characteristics of these data. They show how the analytical composition of the...

This study examines the nature of U.S.-Soviet relations over the past 4 decades. The authors focus especially on the 1980s. There has been a marked shift in U.S.-Soviet conflictual and cooperative foreign policy behavior subsequent to Gorbachev's rise to power. The authors explore quantitatively...

A model of military spending in Israel from 1960-1983 is developed. Domestic expenditures, U.S. military aid to Israel, and Israeli foreign defense purchases comprise the three main components of the model. Security concerns vis-a-vis the Arab states, war involvement, inflation, and election...