A model to explain inflation in China was first estimated in 1985 and is updated using annual data from 1952 to 2008. The rate of inflation is well explained by its own lag, the growth rate of the ratio of money supply to output and an error correction term. The parameters of the model remain...

In 1979 the United States and China established normal diplomatic relations, allowing me to visit China and study the Chinese economy. After doing so for 30 years since and advising the government of Taiwan in the 1960s and the 1970s and the government of the People's Republic of China in the...

Updating (Chow, 1985) and (Chow, 2010), this note finds that (1) the consumption equation continues to hold but the investment equation fails; (2) the investment equation holds if investment data for 2008 and 2009 are revised downward to reflect government expenditures as a part of the stimulus...

This paper begins with a statistical formulation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and discusses the major econometric problems raised in the literature in testing this hypothesis using panel data. A simple t-test is then presented that avoids these econometric problems. The result from...

The model of Chow (1987) for inflation in China is applied to Taiwan. A cointegration relation linear in log price and log ratio of money supply to output is estimated. The change in this log ratio, lagged inflation and the lagged residual of the cointegration relation explain Taiwan’s...

We use time-varying regression to model the relationship between returns in the Shanghai and New York stock markets, with possible inclusion of lagged returns. The parameters of the regressions reveal that the effect of current stock return of New York on Shanghai steadily increases after the...

A macroeconomic model of Chow (1985) explaining aggregate consumption by the permanent income hypothesis of Robert Hall and aggregate investment by the accelerations principle was found to fit Chinese annual data from 1952 to 1982 well. This note shows that the same model can successfully...