In situations of what we now describe as radical uncertainty, the core model of agent behaviour, of rational autonomous agents with stable preferences, is not useful. Instead, a different principle, in which the decisions of an agent are based directly on the decisions and strategies of other...

Darwinian studies of collective human behaviour, which deal fluently with change and are grounded in the details of social influence among individuals, have much to offer “social” models from the physical sciences which have elegant statistical regularities. Although Darwinian evolution is...

Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany between 1871 and 2009. We identify for each country three distinct regimes in inflation/unemployment space. Similarities exist across...

In the 1990s and 2000s, unemployment was seen, both by academic labour market economists and policymakers, as a short-run disequilibrium phenomenon. Policy was aimed at increasing the 'flexibility' of the labour market, at removing obstacles to the workings of the market, which would ostensibly...

By scientific standards, the accuracy of short-term economic forecasts has been poor, and shows no sign of improving over time. We form a delay matrix of time-series data on the overall rate of growth of the economy, with lags spanning the period over which any regularity of behaviour is...

We provide empirical evidence that in a social network which evolves over time, it is possible to extract deep information about the system from limited observations. In this paper, we consider a simple piece of readily available evidence on access to financial services by individuals in the UK....

Qualitative evidence suggests that heresy within the medieval Church had many of the characteristics of a scale-free network. From the perspective of the Church, heresy can be seen as an infectious disease. The disease persisted for long periods of time, breaking out again even when the Church...