As part of its trade policy, Singapore has recently embarked on what can broadly be termed "new regionalism". This is characterized by its new-found desire to enter into Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the economic powerhouses (Japan and the United States in particular) as well as with a...

Temporal aggregation creates contemporaneous correlations, alters dynamic links and may distort causality inference. Since cointegration is invariant to temporal aggregation and implies Granger causality this paper presents a sign rule for causal inference and contemporaneous conditioning in...