This paper utilizes an early warning system in order to measure the likelihood of a financial crisis in an emerging market economy. We introduce a methodology, where we can both obtain a likelihood series and analyze the time-varying effects of several macroeconomic variables on this likelihood....

<title>Abstract</title> This paper aims to investigate the interest rate pass-through of monetary policy rate to banking retail rates in Turkey by employing the asymmetric threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold autoegressive (MTAR) procedures introduced by Enders and Siklos (2001). Over the...

This paper analyzes several economic and socio-demographic factors which affect households' energy choices in Turkey. The data is obtained from the Household Budget Surveys (HBS) conducted by the Turkish Statistics Institute (TÜİK). The multinomial logit model is used to identify households'...

The paper analyzes dollarization in the Turkish economy given the evidence on dedollarization signals. On conducting a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, the empirical evidence suggests that dollarization has mostly been shaped by macroeconomic imbalances as measured by exchange rate...

The reported study has two purposes: first, it attempts to improve the literature on foreign exchange interventions of the central banks for the emerging market economies, an area not previously studied in detail. The Turkish economy in the post-crisis period constitutes a good example in this...

This paper analyzes how the different types of inflation uncertainty affect a set of interest rate spreads for the UK. Three types of inflation uncertainty—structural uncertainty, impulse uncertainty, and steady-state inflation uncertainty—are defined and derived by using a time-varying...

After two types of inflation uncertainty are derived within a time-varying parameter model with GARCH specification, the relationship between inflation uncertainty and interest rates for safe assets is investigated. The results support the existence of a “flight to quality” effect.