This paper utilizes an early warning system in order to measure the likelihood of a financial crisis in an emerging market economy. We introduce a methodology, where we can both obtain a likelihood series and analyze the time-varying effects of several macroeconomic variables on this likelihood....

This chapter investigates the relationship between private savings and a broad range of macroeconomic aggregates in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the period 1981–1994. Private savings are explained by the growth rate of income and strong inertia. Public savings crowd out private...

<title>Abstract</title> This paper aims to investigate the interest rate pass-through of monetary policy rate to banking retail rates in Turkey by employing the asymmetric threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold autoegressive (MTAR) procedures introduced by Enders and Siklos (2001). Over the...

This paper analyzes several economic and socio-demographic factors which affect households' energy choices in Turkey. The data is obtained from the Household Budget Surveys (HBS) conducted by the Turkish Statistics Institute (TÜİK). The multinomial logit model is used to identify households'...

The paper analyzes dollarization in the Turkish economy given the evidence on dedollarization signals. On conducting a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, the empirical evidence suggests that dollarization has mostly been shaped by macroeconomic imbalances as measured by exchange rate...

Several studies including Blanchard (2004) and Favero and Giavazzi (2004) imply that in emerging market economies, a tight monetary policy within an inflation-targeting framework could actually increase the price level due to the lack of fiscal discipline and the associated high risk premium. We...

The recent fluctuations in the oil prices have intensified the discussion on the dynamics and causes of real oil price changes. While the long-run component of real oil prices seems to have a stochastic trend, global real economic activity has been thought to generate important changes in real...

Although there has been an increasing number of studies about the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic performances, the literature on the interaction between oil prices and current account is limited, especially for oil importing developing countries. This paper analyzes the impact of oil...

Employing a state space model, we find for the United States economy that potential output growth rate can deviate from its steady state level for substantially long periods.