David Hendry has made major contributions to many areas of economic forecasting. He has developed a taxonomy of forecast errors and a theory of unpredictability that have yielded valuable insights into the nature of forecasting. He has also provided new perspectives on many existing forecast...

When location shifts occur, cointegration-based equilibrium-correction models (EqCMs) face forecasting problems. We consider alleviating such forecast failure by updating, intercept corrections, differencing, and estimating the future progress of an 'internal' break. Updating leads to a loss of...

A new test for non-linearity in the conditional mean is proposed using functions of the principal components of regressors. The test extends the non-linearity tests based on Kolmogorov-Gabor polynomials ([Thursby and Schmidt, 1977], [Tsay, 1986] and [Teräsvirta et al., 1993]), but...

Reducing the number of over-identifying instruments, or adding them to a structural equation, increases estimation dispersion. Added instruments should be insignificant under correct specification, with parameter estimates nearly unaffected, confirmed by Monte Carlo. Selecting instruments does...