This paper shows that forward default intensities in the Black and Cox (1976) model of corporate default can be expressed in terms of the Mills Ratio (Mills, 1926). The behaviour of the forward default intensity and hence the survivorship functions then follows from inequalities that are...

This paper provides evidence that aggregate returns on commodity futures (without the returns on collateral) are predictable, both in-sample and out-of-sample, by various lagged variables from the stock market, bond market, macroeconomics, and the commodity market. Out of the 32 candidate...

We construct a derivative that depends on the SPY and VIX and, in this way, incorporates both the market risk premium and the variance risk premium. We show that the product's Sharpe ratio is higher than the SPY Sharpe ratio. If we invest $10000 into the product, the products' payoff is around...

This is a survey of the basic theoretical foundations of intertemporal asset pricing theory. The broader theory is first reviewed in a simple discrete-time setting, emphasizing the key role of state prices. The existence of state prices is equivalent to the absence of arbitrage. State prices,...

Portfolio choice and the implied asset pricing are usually derived assuming maximization of expected utility. In this Paper, they are derived from risk-value models that generalize the Markowitz-model. We use a behaviourally based risk measure with an endogenous or exogenous benchmark. If the...

We show that an unbounded number of consumption dates is necessary to support an asset pricing bubble. We work in a continuous-time model where the number of trade dates is infinite but the number of consumption dates is flexible and can be chosen to be uniformly bounded, finite almost surely,...

People tend to think by analogies. We investigate whether thinking-by-analogy matters for investors’ willingness-to-pay for a risky asset in a laboratory experiment. We find that thinking-by-analogy has a strong influence when the assets in question have similar (but not identical) payoffs....

We show that Australian options are equivalent to fixed or floating strike Asian options and consequently that by studying Asian options from the Australian perspective and vice versa, much can be gained. One specific application of this “Australian approach” leads to a natural dimension...

We document significant “time series momentum” in equity index, currency, commodity, and bond futures for each of the 58 liquid instruments we consider. We find persistence in returns for one to 12 months that partially reverses over longer horizons, consistent with sentiment theories of...

Insider trading in the credit derivatives market has become a significant concern for regulators and participants. This paper attempts to quantify the problem. Using news reflected in the stock market as a benchmark for public information, we report evidence of significant incremental...