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We estimate a Bayesian structural vector autoregression that allows for time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility in the errors to account for the effects of various aggregate shocks on the real price of oil. We employ US quarterly data from 1948:Q1 to 2011:Q2. We find that aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010679308
The aim of this paper is to determine if OPEC acts as a cartel by testing whether the production decisions of the … different countries are coordinated and if they have an influence on oil prices. Relying on cointegration and causality tests in … both time series and panel settings, our findings show that the OPEC influence has evolved through time, following the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010868783
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012182175
We evaluate the Swedish inflation targeting regime adopted in 1993−1995 using a novel approach based on a unique data set on the characteristics of collective wage agreements between 1908 and 2008. We find that the inflation targeting regime of 1995−2008 stands out as an exceptionally stable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005082983
A key rationale for fiscal stimulus is to boost consumption when aggregate demand is perceived to be inefficiently low. We examine the ability of the government to increase consumption by evaluating the impact of the 2009 "Cash for Clunkers" program on short and medium run auto purchases. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008565074
This paper investigates the dynamics of the real exchange rate and relative output among the US and five of its top six trading partners since the collapse of Bretton Woods. It employs long-run restrictions to identify the usual suspect macroeconomic shocks and their relative importance for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010594669
Using a 219-year sample, we find that the US output growth and inflation volatilities fell by 60% and 76%, respectively, from 1945 until the mid-1960s. This Postwar Moderation is more substantial than the Great Moderation. The largest reduction in inflation volatility occurred during the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010572272
We identify the effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic variables in VARs using the Divisia M4 measure of money as the policy indicator variable. We obtain theoretically sensible responses—whether or not a commodity price index is included. Thus, we eliminate the well-known...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011041586
International rice markets are seen as volatile due to the thin nature of the market which is believed to be exacerbated by a low level of substitution between major rice export markets. In other words, this perceived lack of price transmission amongst international rice markets is believed to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010242846
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011559060