We examine bilateral US- and Thailand-based equity portfolios around the 1997 baht crisis using an extreme value framework for safety-first (SF) portfolio optimisation, with comparisons to the Markowitz mean-variance minimum variance portfolio (MVP). The optimal SF portfolio is invested 100 per...

We model two regimes using threshold cointegration and threshold vector error correction model for sovereign CDS and equity markets of thirteen emerging markets. We document evidence of momentum in cointegration relationships in CDS and equity markets of all countries. We find that positive and...

The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables? It is well known that exchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models, and that a random walk forecasts exchange rates better...

We model pre-euro Spanish monetary policy and use our findings to assess the compatibility of the interest rates set by the ECB since 1999 with Spanish macro-fundamentals. We find that in the 1990s Spain implemented successfully a monetary strategy tailored to its own domestic fundamentals; and...

Like many other developing countries, South Asian nations have been experiencing increased foreign direct investment inflows over the past decade as developing countries get a larger share of cross-border investments that were once sent to developed countries. Nonetheless, South Asia’s...

We provide original results on national and global stock market liquidity and its interaction with macro-economic variables for six of the G7 economies, namely: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and UK, building on the methodology and on the US evidence by Naes et al. (2011). Using a number...

We apply a structural pricing model to bond market data in order to estimate the default risk for Argentina in 2000/2001. The model explicitly considers short-term and long-term debt service payments and their dependencies by employing compound option theory. In this way, it is possible to take...

For the small open economy of Botswana the PPP theory is validated in both the absolute and relative version for the Pula-Dollar exchange rate during the sample period 1992 third quarter to 2002 fourth quarter. The Pula-Dollar exchange rate is determined by the long-term trends in Botswana’s...

We analyze the dynamics of zero-coupon bond options in a situation in which the currently floating exchange rate between two countries' currencies is announced to be fixed on a given future date. To this end, we combine two strands of research that have been treated as separate issues up to...

This paper develops a model and structural dynamic estimation of bank behavior to map the relationship between U.S. banks’ choices of foreign banking activities, and bank and foreign market traits. This estimation framework is applied to a unique bank-level dataset compiled from regulatory...