We examine bilateral US- and Thailand-based equity portfolios around the 1997 baht crisis using an extreme value framework for safety-first (SF) portfolio optimisation, with comparisons to the Markowitz mean-variance minimum variance portfolio (MVP). The optimal SF portfolio is invested 100 per...

We model two regimes using threshold cointegration and threshold vector error correction model for sovereign CDS and equity markets of thirteen emerging markets. We document evidence of momentum in cointegration relationships in CDS and equity markets of all countries. We find that positive and...

The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables? It is well known that exchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models, and that a random walk forecasts exchange rates better...

We model pre-euro Spanish monetary policy and use our findings to assess the compatibility of the interest rates set by the ECB since 1999 with Spanish macro-fundamentals. We find that in the 1990s Spain implemented successfully a monetary strategy tailored to its own domestic fundamentals; and...

The failure of uncovered interest rate parity to explain short-term interest rate movements is well documented. We show that short-term changes in long-term interest rates do help to explain short-term exchange rate movements. The relationship gets stronger over our sample period, as the...

This paper examines the conditional time-varying currency betas from five developed and six emerging financial markets with contagion and spillover effects. We employ a trivariate asymmetric BEKK-type GARCH-in-Mean (MGARCH-M) approach to estimate the time-varying conditional variance and...

For the small open economy of Botswana the PPP theory is validated in both the absolute and relative version for the Pula-Dollar exchange rate during the sample period 1992 third quarter to 2002 fourth quarter. The Pula-Dollar exchange rate is determined by the long-term trends in Botswana’s...

We provide original results on national and global stock market liquidity and its interaction with macro-economic variables for six of the G7 economies, namely: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and UK, building on the methodology and on the US evidence by Naes et al. (2011). Using a number...

We analyze the dynamics of zero-coupon bond options in a situation in which the currently floating exchange rate between two countries' currencies is announced to be fixed on a given future date. To this end, we combine two strands of research that have been treated as separate issues up to...

The carry trade is the investment strategy of going long in high-yield target currencies and short in low-yield funding currencies. Recently, this naive trade has seen very high returns for long periods, followed by large crash losses after large depreciations of the target currencies. Based on...