We examine bilateral US- and Thailand-based equity portfolios around the 1997 baht crisis using an extreme value framework for safety-first (SF) portfolio optimisation, with comparisons to the Markowitz mean-variance minimum variance portfolio (MVP). The optimal SF portfolio is invested 100 per...

We model two regimes using threshold cointegration and threshold vector error correction model for sovereign CDS and equity markets of thirteen emerging markets. We document evidence of momentum in cointegration relationships in CDS and equity markets of all countries. We find that positive and...

We model pre-euro Spanish monetary policy and use our findings to assess the compatibility of the interest rates set by the ECB since 1999 with Spanish macro-fundamentals. We find that in the 1990s Spain implemented successfully a monetary strategy tailored to its own domestic fundamentals; and...

The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables? It is well known that exchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models, and that a random walk forecasts exchange rates better...

This paper presents new stylized facts on the distribution of the home bias at the fund level. We find (i) a large heterogeneity in the degree of home bias across mutual funds; (ii) a positive correlation between the size of funds and home bias; and (iii) a positive correlation between the size...

The carry trade is the investment strategy of going long in high-yield target currencies and short in low-yield funding currencies. Recently, this naive trade has seen very high returns for long periods, followed by large crash losses after large depreciations of the target currencies. Based on...

The two-country monetary model has become a fundamental tool for explaining the behavior of the exchange rate. However, the popularity of this approach is not justifi ed by its empirical support. One of the reasons for the empirical “failure” of exchange rate models could be the econometric...

This paper examines the exchange rate predictability stemming from the equilibrium model of international financial adjustment developed by Gourinchas and Rey (2007). Using predictive variables that measure cyclical external imbalances for country pairs, we assess the ability of this model to...

A wave of recent research has studied the predictability of foreign currency returns. A wide variety of forecasting structures have been proposed, including signals such as carry, value, momentum, and the forward curve. Some of these have been explored individually, and others have been used in...

The carry trade is the investment strategy of going long in high-yield target currencies and short in low-yield funding currencies. Recently, this naive trade has seen very high returns for long periods, followed by large crash losses after large depreciations of the target currencies. Based on...