This paper proposes a new testing strategy for unemployment hysteresis as the joint restriction of a unit-root in the unemployment rate and no feedback effect of unemployment in the Phillips wage equation. The associated test statistics are derived when this joint restriction is imposed and when...

In this paper we re-analyze the nature of the trend (deterministic or stochastic) in the Nelson–Plosser macroeconomic data set from an alternative method relative to the previous studies. We underline the effects of large, but infrequent shocks due to major economic or financial events on US...

The United States (U.S.) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has been widely and unambiguously regarded as a good ‘predictor’ of the U.S.’s private investment and consumption. In order to demonstrate such with statistical rigor, co-integration and Granger causality tests were applied for...

We suggest a new unit-root test with a Fourier function in the deterministic term in a Dickey–Fuller type regression framework. Our suggested test can complement the Fourier LM and DF-GLS unit root tests. They have good size and power properties.

We examine the performance of nonlinear instrumental variable (NIV) unit root tests using various recursive detrending methods. We find that the NIV unit root tests using the recursive detrending method of Chang (2002) are the most powerful. They are more powerful than OLS based DF tests.

This paper introduces a new confidence interval (CI) for the autoregressive parameter (AR) in an AR(1) model that allows for conditional heteroskedasticity of a general form and AR parameters that are less than or equal to unity. The CI is a modification of Mikusheva's (2007a) modification of...

This paper explores the frequency of permanent shocks in divorce rates for 16 European countries during the period 1930–2006. We examine whether the divorce rate is a stationary series, exhibits a unit root, or is stationary around a process subject to structural breaks. A clear finding from...

We show that the use of generalized least squares (GLS-)detrending procedures with bound-specific non-centrality parameter leads to important empirical power gains compared to using the ordinary least squares (OLS-)detrending method when testing the null hypothesis of unit root for bounded...

This paper explores the response of the divorce rate to law reforms introducing unilateral divorce after controlling for law reforms concerning the aftermath of divorce, which are omitted from most previous studies. We introduce two main policy changes that have swept the US since the late...

Previous studies have shown that the stationary and nonstationary time-varying volatilities have different implications on the unit root test. In this paper, we provide a Bayesian unit root test for an AR(1) model with stochastic volatility and leverage effect. Monte Carlo simulations show that...