We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field...

There was a discussion in the years 1964-66 in this journal about the best way to estimate growth rates. Inferential and descriptive methods were carefully carried out and discussed but the opinion of the protagonists remained different. This gap between thinking about theoretical and...

The paper concerns a heterogeneous agent model, which is an extension of the Brock and Hommes model. The heterogeneous agents approach challenges the traditional representative rational agent framework. Heterogeneity in expectations can lead to market instability and complicated price dynamics....

We extend the original heterogeneous agent model of Brock and Hommes (1998) by introducing the concept of skilled traders. The idea of skilled traders is based on the endeavor of market agents to estimate future price movements. We distinguish between the three groups of skilled traders...

We propose a nonparametric estimation and inference for conditional density based Granger causality measures that quantify linear and nonlinear Granger causalities. We first show how to write the causality measures in terms of copula densities. Thereafter, we suggest consistent estimators for...

In this paper, we explore partial identification and inference for the quantile of treatment effects for randomized experiments. First, we propose nonparametric estimators of sharp bounds on the quantile of treatment effects and establish their asymptotic properties under general conditions....

This paper supplements Manski (1990) and Manski and Pepper (2000) and contributes to the literature by introducing the concept of weak IV for the partially identified mean counterfactual outcomes when an instrumental variable (IV) or a monotone instrumental variable (MIV) is available (IV or MIV...

This work aims to understand the poverty phenomenon in Morocco. It is based on the multidimensional poverty assessment and analysis, through the Alkire and Foster approach to poverty measurement (2007). It is also based on the indicators which will allow us to measure the incidence of poverty by...