The asymmetric and persistent adjustment of the European real exchange rates is investigated using the framework of non-linear cointegration. The episodes of slow mean-reversion dynamics over the period from 1979 to 1999 are explained. A test of unit root against STAR cointegration is proposed...

The standard macroeconomic view links the equilibrium level of foreign exchange rates to the state of the macroeconomic fundamentals. Any deviation from the equilibrium level is viewed as temporary since there are forces ensuring quickly mean-reverting dynamics. The aim of this article is to...

[eng] A Comparison of Expert Forecasts with BVAR Model Forecasts by Sandrine Lardic and Auguste Mpacko-Priso . This paper checks whether economic and financial experts forecast macroeconomic and financial variables «better» than alternative techniques and in particular the Bayesian method. The...

[fre] Cette étude d’événements sur la Bourse de Paris montre l’impact d’informations publiques sur les cours des entreprises émettrices. Les données utilisées sont intraquotidiennes et portent sur des titres du CAC 40 et du MIDCAC de janvier 1995 à décembre 1999. Deux tests non...

[eng] Fractional Cointegration Between Consumption and Income.. The purpose of this paper is to test the existence of a stable long-term relationship between consumption and income. To do so, we use the concept of fractional cointegration rather than the usual concept of cointegration. Standard...