This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of various financial variables as predictors of U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and nonfinancial indicators. The...

Recommended readings (Machine generated): 1. Geoffrey H. Moore (1967), 'What is a Recession?', American Statistician, 21 (4), October, 16-9 -- 2. Allan P. Layton and Anirvan Banerji (2003), 'What is a Recession?: A Reprise', Applied Economics, 35 (16), 1789-97 -- 3. Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C....

Ten of thirteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment, three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates do not.

This paper carefully outlines a method for the calculation of average marginal tax rates. The method is applied to Statistics of Income data for dividend and interest income earned by U.S. households from 1954 to 1980. To illustrate the effects these data can have inempirical work, the tax rates...

We examine the potential policy role of monetary aggregates by attempting to use them as effectively as possible in the analysis of empirical relationships. We consider three possible roles: as information variables, as indicators of policy actions and as instruments in a policy rule. These...