The random walk property of exchange rates is regarded as carrying implications for the kinds of shocks that have driven exchange rates and the models appropriate for analyzing their behavior. This paper describes the results of stochastic simulations of Dornbusch's (1976) sticky-price monetary...

Several questions are addressed about the time-series processes followed by dollar exchange rates. The stochastic process for exchange rates implied by structural models and the conditions under which they would be described by random walks are examined. Tests on the univariate time series for...

This paper examines the distribution of output around capacity when money demand is a non-linear function of the nominal interest rate such that nominal interest rates cannot become negative. When fluctuations in output result primarily from disturbances to the money market, the variance of...

This paper presents a model of development of an economy comprised of a rural-agricultural sector and an urban-industrial sector. The interaction of investment with unemployment creates a channel for potentially divergent long-run outcomes. If the urban-industrial capital stock falls short of a...

The focus of this analysis is on the output costs of disinflation. A model of inflation with both forward and backward elements seems to characterize reality. Such an inflation model is estimated using data for industrial countries, and the output costs of a disinflation path are calculated,...

Unemployment in South Africa is decomposed into a cyclical and a structural component. The estimates suggest that unemployment is largely structural. Alternative explanations for the persistence of deviations of market wages from full-employment levels are examined. Three models that are...