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variables, model it using a dynamic factor model, and compare the resulting forecasts with those from a set of standard time …, the factor-based forecasts are shown to improve upon standard benchmarks for prices, real aggregates, and financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661430
performance of factor models. We complement the analysis with an empirical evaluation of forecasts for the key macroeconomic … factor-based forecasts in short samples with structural change. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666861
This paper focuses on the core inflation measurement in Italy using univariate (national-level inflation) vs. multivariate (city-level inflation) models during the period 1970–2006. We derive algebraic expressions that allow comparison between the reduced form parameters of univariate and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009293421
resolved by the introduction of the time-varying jump risk premia. For density forecasts, the time-varying jump risk premia …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010931669
The nonlinear modelization has experimented a great resurgence of the hand of Chaos Theory, which shown the possibility of obtaining complex behaviors produced endogenously by the dynamics of the model, without the necessity to include exogenous random shocks. On the other hand, the importance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005736967
return quantiles depend on the realized measures and evaluate the distribution, quantile and interval forecasts of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010703243
number of trades as well as in various specifications of overnight returns can improve one-step-ahead volatility forecasts … improvement of out-of-sample forecasts is unequivocally non-significant. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048839
We consider a method for producing multivariate density forecasts that satisfy moment restrictions implied by economic … conditions into forecasts produced by Bayesian vector autoregressions shows that the improvements in accuracy can be sizable and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011052219
Electricity price time series usually exhibit some form of nonstationarity, corresponding to long-term behavior, one or more periodic components as well as dependence on calendar effects. As a result, modeling electricity prices requires accounting for both long-term and periodic components. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011100094
future. The sequence of individual forecasts, one period at a time, is called a path forecast, where the term path refers to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009748762