Nominal exchange rates do not move to offset differences in inflation rates on a month to month, quarter to quarter, or even year to year basis, resulting in sizable real exchange rate changes. Are these changes predictable? We address this question in three ways. First, we describe a variety of...

This paper derives the asymptotic distribution for a vector of sample autocorrelations of regression residuals from a quite general linear model. The asymptotic distribution forms the basis for a test of the null hypothesis that the regression error follows a moving average of order q...

A striking phenomenon of the early 1980s is the climb in real interest rates to levels unprecedented in the post-World War II period. In order to understand this phenomenon, this paper investigates the nature and timing of shifts in the real rate process to determine if the recent unusual...

This paper introduces a limited-information two-step estimator for models with rational expectations and serially correlated disturbances. The estimator greatly extends the area of applicability of McCallum's (1976) instrumental variables approach to rational expectations models. Section I...