This paper provides rules for anticipating business-cycle recessions and recoveries for countries showing asymmetric cycle durations. Based on a Schumpeterian framework, we analyze business cycles as sums of short-, medium-, and long-term cycles defined for a particular class of unobserved...

This paper aims at testing and modeling business-cycle asymmetries within a structural time-series framework, allowing for smooth transition in the parameters characterizing the cyclical component, namely, the damping factor and the frequency. An LM test of linearity is derived, and...

This paper reconsiders the conventional use of econometric models, especially identified vector autoregressive models, in guiding monetary policy. The main question I explore is whether these models are seriously flawed because they ignore asymmetries in the business cycles. Toward that end,...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between loan default and loss given default (LGD) in an agricultural loan portfolio. The analysis employs a simulation model approach to evaluate the role that systematic and non‐systematic risks play in determining the...

Purpose – This paper aims to study the formation and amplification mechanism of the financial crisis and business cycle and also discuss the related optimal rules for the central bank and government. Design/methodology/approach – This study is developed basically on a simple financial...

Purpose – With a comparative aim, the purpose of this paper is to challenge the general assumption behind relationship longevity. The question under attention is whether firms' relationship of a discontinuous nature is different from continuous relationships and if so what this diversity...

Enquires into the link between the Tokyo and New York equity markets. Finds that the link between the two markets strengthens at some times and weakens at others. Staggering business cycles and the breaking of global co‐operation are two plausible explanations of the weakening of the links...

This research was designed to reveal the magnitude of continued use of informal suppliers by household consumers as well as the relationship of such use with general market conditions. The results of this study are based on national probability samples of households in the United States which...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic factors in income growth, as defined by IS‐LM, and the relation between these factors and economic cycles. More precisely, the paper aims to investigate how the demand and supply factors affect income growth,...

Explanations of union growth and decline are generally linked to trends in the business cycle which are reflected primarily in prices, wages and unemployment – an example of this approach is the Bain and Elsheikh model – explanations not entirely appropriate in a country with a developing...