We consider the implications for forecast accuracy of imposing unit roots and cointegrating restrictions in linear systems of I(1) variables in levels, differences, and cointegrated combinations. Asymptotic formulae are obtained for multi-step forecast error variances for each representation....

Analyses of forecasting that assume a constant, time-invariant data generating process (DGP), and so implicitly rule out structural change or regime shifts in the economy, ignore an aspect of the real world responsible for some of the more dramatic historical episodes of predictive failure. Some...

This paper examines the effects of judgmental adjustments on the rationality of macroeconomic forecasts. Published forecasts based on large-scale models are rarely purely model-based but often include extensive adjustments. Forecasters' adjustments tend to improve forecast accuracy but there is...

This paper analyses and extends alternative procedures for converting qualitative expectations responses to quantitative expectations. A number of conversion procedures is investigated, including the probability model, the time-varying parameter probability model, and the regression approach....

This major Handbook comprehensively surveys the rapidly growing field of the economics of education. It is unique in that it comprises original contributions on an exceptional range of topics from a review of human capital, signalling and screening models, to consideration of issues such as...

This article provides a practical evaluation of some leading density forecast scoring rules in the context of forecast surveys. We analyse the density forecasts of UK inflation obtained from the Bank of England's Survey of External Forecasters, considering both the survey average forecasts...