Many past studies documented a strong evidence of a linkage between stock prices and macroeconomic activities across different stock markets and time horizons. However, most of these studies have focused on developed economies and highlighted the impact of either domestic variables or a few...

Zusammenfassung Historische Ereignisse spiegeln sich in Preisveränderungen auf Finanzmärkten. Dieses Papier untersucht die deutsche Kriegsgeschichte während des zweiten Weltkriegs anhand der Preisentwicklung der in der Schweiz gehandelten deutschen Staatsanleihen. Die Resultate unserer...

Summary The asset price channel focuses on the relative prices of a wide range of assets in the transmission of monetary impulses on the financial and real capital markets. If monetary impulses are already fading on the financial markets, then their effectiveness in terms of economic policy...

Summary Models with heterogeneous interacting agents have proven to be quite successful in the past. For instance, such models are able to mimic the dynamics of financial markets quite well. The goal of our paper is to explore whether this approach may offer new insights into the working of...

It is a common assertion that, in a world with perfect markets and rational expectations, endogenous cycles could only arise under very unrealistic assumptions. This paper offers a short discussion on this claim and a review of the relevant contributions to the literature on deterministic...

Linear asset-pricing relations, with macroeconomic factors as state variables, have found wide usein empirical finance. Applications of such relations range from academic studies of market efficiency andmarket anomalies to practical uses such as risk management and estimation of the cost of...

In areas from medicine to climate change to economics, we are faced with huge challenges and a need for accurate forecasts, yet our ability to predict the future has been found wanting. The basic problem is that complex systems such as the atmosphere or the economy cannot be reduced to simple...

The paper focuses on the interaction between the solvency probability of a banking firm and the diversification potential of its asset portfolio when determining optimal equity capital. The purpose of this paper is to incorporate value at risk (VaR) into the firm-theoretical model of a banking...

According to many authors, so-called “central planning” had disappeared from European countries by 1989. However, this is by no means certain. Many former centrally planned economies still engage in central planning, in both the private and public sectors. Moreover, there is a striking...