This paper explores the gains from combining expert forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The analysis encompasses combinations based on principal components and trimmed means, performance-based weighting, and least squares estimates of optimal weights, as well as...

This paper analyses the real-time forecasting performance of the New Keynesian DSGE model of Galí, Smets and Wouters (2012), estimated on euro area data. It investigates the extent to which the inclusion of forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by professional forecasters improve...

We consider the problem of optimally combining individual forecasts of gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) dataset for the Euro Area. Contrary to the common practice of using equal combination weights, we compute optimal weights which...