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for the NATO allies are determined. If NATO members are responding to a common threat, the breaks should be similar, in … both direction and dates, for defense expenditures. The breaks should occur during major NATO strategy shifts. The results … of the structural analysis tests suggest that NATO allies do not have an integrated response to NATO-specific defense …
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Credible Granger-causality analysis appears to require post-sample inference, as it is well-known that in-sample fit can be a poor guide to actual forecasting effectiveness. However, post-sample model testing requires an often-consequential a priori partitioning of the data into an "in-sample"...
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