Linear cointegration is known to have the important property of invariance under temporal translation. The same property is shown not to apply for nonlinear cointegration. The limit properties of the Nadaraya–Watson (NW) estimator for cointegrating regression under misspecified lag structure...

A limit theory is developed for mildly explosive autoregression under both weakly and strongly dependent innovation errors. The asymptotic behaviour of the sample moments is affected by the memory of the innovation process both in the form of the limiting distribution and, in the case of long...

This study investigates the usefulness of the business tendency surveys collected at the KOF institute for short-term forecasting of employment in Switzerland aggregated in the KOF Employment Indicator. We use the real time dataset in order to simulate the actual predictive process using only...

In this paper, we address the issue of spurious correlation in the production of health in a systematic way. Spurious correlation entails the risk of linking health status to medical (and nonmedical) inputs when no links exist. This note first presents the bounds testing procedure as a method to...

I investigated whether migration is interrelated with trade, aid and remittances so that any policies that consider trade, aid and remittances also affect the decision to migrate. We developed and estimated an empirical model of Turkish migration to Germany and tested the model for the...

This paper investigates persistence of Swiss consumer price inflation using aggregate and disaggregate inflation data covering 1983-2008. We document that persistence of sectoral inflation rates is below persistence of aggregate inflation. Our main finding is that inflation persistence...

We investigate in this paper whether the stable pattern of remittances over the last three decades can be explained by the altruistic behaviour. This possibility is tested by means of cointegration analysis, which is applied to Turkish remittances from Germany over the period 1962-2005. A single...

We investigate whether the KOF Barometer - a leading indicator regularly released by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute - can be useful for short-term out-of-sample prediction of year-on-year quarterly real GDP growth rates in Switzerland. We find that the KOF Barometer appears to be useful for...

This study addresses price convergence in two cities in Turkey (Istanbul and Ankara) using the annual data over the three quarters of the 20th century (1922-1998), characterized by prevailing high inflation rates for most of the period. In contrast to the rest of the literature addressing...

In this paper, we investigate whether the Google search activity can help in nowcasting the year-on-year growth rates of monthly US private consumption using a real-time data set. The Google-based forecasts are compared to those based on a benchmark AR(1) model and the models including the...