Using a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts, this paper demonstrates that good exchange rate forecasts are related to a proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relationship is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls....

Based on Cheung, Chinn and García-Pascual (2004) and Meese and Rogoff (1983), the forecasting performance of a wide variety of theoretical and empirical exchange rate models (PPP, UIP, flexible and sticky-price monetary models, portfolio balance, and a BEER model) is tested against the random...

This book will be an important addition to the limited number of books that discuss finance and accounting issues in East Asian countries. While presenting recent empirical studies on finance and accounting in East Asian economies, it also reveals the underlying reasons for remarkable economic...

The failure of uncovered interest rate parity to explain short-term interest rate movements is well documented. We show that short-term changes in long-term interest rates do help to explain short-term exchange rate movements. The relationship gets stronger over our sample period, as the...

We analyse the effectiveness of exchange rate interventions for a panel of 18 emerging market economies during the period 2003-11. Using an error-correction model approach, we find that on average intervention is effective in moving the real exchange rate in the desired direction, controlling...

Using methods from machine learning we show that fundamentals from simple exchange rate models (PPP or UIRP) or Taylor-rule based models lead to improved exchange rate forecasts for major currencies over the floating period era 1973--2014 at a 1-month forecast horizon which beat the no-change...