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countries: the USA and the UK. To do this, we apply nonlinearity tests and threshold models. While the first tests enable us to … improve the modeling and forecasting of public debt evolution. It is important to note that public debts vary significantly …
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Building upon Beaudry and Koop's (1993) analysis, we consider a "current depth of the recession" (CDR) variable in modeling the time-series behavior of the postwar quarterly U.S. unemployment rate. The CDR approach is consistent with the state-dependent behavior in the unemployment rate...
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