In this paper we use smooth transition vector error-correction models (STVECMs) in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the unemployment rates of the four non-Euro G-7 countries, the U.S., the U.K., Canada, and Japan. For the U.S., pooled forecasts constructed by taking the...

This paper provides a guide to two FORTRAN programs, called TRT1.FOR and TRT2.FOR, written to run the two stages of the Ramsey and Rothman (1996) time-reversibility (TR) test. Original FORTRAN source code and executable (on an IBM-compatible PC) versions of the programs are available. The major...

Building upon Beaudry and Koop's (1993) analysis, we consider a "current depth of the recession" (CDR) variable in modeling the time-series behavior of the postwar quarterly U.S. unemployment rate. The CDR approach is consistent with the state-dependent behavior in the unemployment rate...

Building upon Beaudry and Koop's (1993) analysis, we consider a "current depth of the recession" (CDR) variable in modeling the time-series behavior of the postwar quarterly U.S. unemployment rate. The CDR approach is consistent with the state-dependent behavior in the unemployment rate...