This paper develops a multi-sector, small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, which includes the accumulation of human capital, built via public expenditures in education and health. Four possible fiscal rules are examined for total public investment in infrastructure,...

The UK, with its relatively liberal immigration policies following recent enlargements, has been one of the main recipients of migrants from new EU member states. This paper poses the questions: what is the effect of immigration on a receiving economy such as the UK? Is the effect beneficial or...

There are two main sources of information about the Arms Trade, SIPRI and ACDA. These two sources give very different pictures of the evolution of the market, primarily because their measures are designed to capture conceptually different features. Although they are both expressed in constant...

The possibility of domestic production raises a difficulty for arms export control measures, since embargoes, by raising the effective price of imports, increase the incentive for domestic production. We address this issue by developing a partial equilibrium model of the international arms...

In a turnover-training model, where firms fix high wages to lower worker turnover, we find that high risk-aversion in firms speeds up the adjustment process of unemployment to its natural levels when employers face either temporary or permanent shocks. Therefore, risk aversion has a stabilizing...

Given that there are a relatively small number of suppliers of major weapons systems, control fo arms exports is possible, and there are a variety of regulatory regimes striving to achieve this. Controls can stabilize regional arms races and reduce tensions. However, when buyers can develop the...

We consider Sims's (2008) argument that robust policy making requires that policy models be treated as “probability models”. In a welfare-based setting, we estimate by Bayesian methods a number of variants of a New Keynesian macroeconomic model and use both the model odds and posterior...