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The 1992 British general election took place in the context of a severe housing recession which hit hardest in those regions from which the government usually drew much of its electoral support. The slump notwithstanding, however, the government went on to win its fourth successive election...
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, allant de leurs comportements et ideologies politiques agrave; leurs intentions de vote. PATTIE C. und JOHNSTON R. (1998) Die … geographische Regionen der Stimmabgabe gezeitigt, wobei die Konservativen sich im Suden des Landes erfolgreich hervortaten, und … Faktoren sind (einschliesslich Gesellschaftsklasse, Herkunft und personlicher Umstande), welche die Entscheidungen der Wahler …
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Our forecast model for German Bundestag elections relies on three predictors: (1) the popularity of the incumbent chancellor (hence the christening of it as the "Chancellor Model"); (2) the long-term partisan balance in the German electorate; and (3) the cost of ruling, as captured by the tenure...
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