We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on … inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the … best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …

We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on … inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the … best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …

is associated with more accurate and less biased entrepreneur expectations. Further, the benefit of industry experience …

series. Using in-sample regressions and out-of sample forecasts, we show that the predictive power of leverage is roughly …

series. Using in-sample regressions and out-of sample forecasts, we show that the predictive power of leverage is roughly …

performance of factor models. We complement the analysis with an empirical evaluation of forecasts for the key macroeconomic … factor-based forecasts in short samples with structural change. …

variables, model it using a dynamic factor model, and compare the resulting forecasts with those from a set of standard time …, the factor-based forecasts are shown to improve upon standard benchmarks for prices, real aggregates, and financial …