The most influential recent work on the determinants of civil wars found the factors associated with the grievance motivation to be largely irrelevant. Our paper subjects the results of this empirical work to further scrutiny by embedding the study of civil war in a more general analysis of...

Post-conflict countries receive substantial aid flows after the start of peace. While post-conflict countries' capacity to absorb aid (that is, the quality of their policies and institutions) is built up only gradually after the onset of peace, the evidence suggests that aid tends to peak...

The authors combine an empirical model of external intervention with a theoretical model of civil war duration. Their empirical model of intervention allows them to analyze civil war duration using "expected" rather than "actual" external intervention as an explanatory variable in the duration...

This paper addresses three questions: 1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; 2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth in terms physical capital, labor force, human capital, and productivity; and 3) what potential growth...

This paper analyses the economic growth impact of organised political violence. First, we identify the various manifestations of political violence (riots, coups and civil war) and their risk of occurrence by using a multinomial model. Second, we use predicted probabilities of aggregate violence...

Using a methodology that allows for endogenizing the participation decisions on World Bank adjustment lending programs, as well as for testing the validity of the maintained assumptions regarding program participation, this paper studies the effectiveness of these programs in Sub-Saharan Africa...

Foreign aid, the real exchange rate (RER), and economic growth are three key variables that shape the aftermath of civil wars in many developing countries. Panel estimations drawn from a sample of 39 conflict and 44 nonconflict countries between 1970 and 2004 indicate that although postconflict...