This paper documents some features of recent trends in bond yields and discusses the drivers of these trends. This includes a discussion of the relationship between fiscal balances and interest rates -- with a summary of key empirical results from the literature provided in the Appendix. The...

China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...

China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...

We explore heterogeneity in the finance-growth relationship by considering the effects of foreign and domestic lending separately. Estimating finite mixture models, we find that the effects of bank finance and foreign bank involvement on growth depend on 1) how well-developed the banking sector...

Why doesn't capital flow into fast-growing countries? In this paper, we provide a quantitative framework incorporating heterogeneous producers and underdeveloped domestic financial markets to study the joint dynamics of total factor productivity (TFP) and capital flows. When an unexpected...

For three years after the typical emerging economy opens its stock market to inflows of foreign capital, the average annual growth rate of the real wage in the manufacturing sector increases by a factor of three. No such increase occurs in a control group of countries that do not liberalize. The...

The aim of this paper is to construct theoretical models which help to shed light on the recent criticisms of volatile investment flows. We do not make any empirical attempt to establish the existence or gauge the importance of the adverse effects of volatile investment flows nor do we make any...

Turkey has considerably improved its terms of access to the global capital market. Progress in macroeconomic fundamentals has enhanced credibility and reduced risk premia and capital costs. This has had broad effects on capital supply conditions in the entire economy. Real interest rates have...

The paper recounts the history of the finance-growth nexus research from its origins to the yearly 1990s. The contributions are analyzed in connection with the socioeconomic context and advances in economic theory. Many ideas first expressed decades ago are still subject to constant discussions...

The links between real and nominal bond risk premia and macroeconomic dynamics are explored quantitatively in a model with nominal rigidities and monetary policy. The estimated model captures macroeconomic and yield curve properties of the U.S. economy, implying significantly positive real term...