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We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544696
This paper investigates persistence of Swiss consumer price inflation using aggregate and disaggregate inflation data … covering 1983-2008. We document that persistence of sectoral inflation rates is below persistence of aggregate inflation. Our … main finding is that inflation persistence significantly declines in the early 1990s. An estimated factor model reveals …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003909626
situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123620
Using the same data as Chow and Wang (2010) [Chow, Gregory C., Wang, Peng, 2010. The empirics of inflation in China …. Economics Letters 109, 28–30], as well as a smooth transition regression model, this paper reconsiders the empirics of inflation … inflation in China, in contrast to the results derived with Chow and Wang’s model of constant parameters. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010662397
This paper constructs a quarterly series of GDP deflator inflation for China from 1979 to 2009 and tests for a … structural break with an unknown change point in the dynamic inflation process. Empirical results suggest a significant … structural change in inflation persistence. Employing a counterfactual simulation method, we show that the structural change is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010573373
looking pricing account for the observed persistence in aggregate inflation. Second, price-setting responds to movements in … marginal costs, which should therefore be the driving force to observed inflation dynamics. This is not always the case in …) inflation, and underestimating the importance of (aggregate) marginal costs for (aggregate) inflation. We provide intuition for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662190
This paper examines the relationship between the output gap and inflation in Japan by estimating Phillips curves and … testing for changes since the advent of low inflation and/or the stabilisation of the rate of change of inflation. The work … provides empirical support for the hypothesis of a change in the relationship between output and inflation in an environment of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012444474
Building on the results in Nalewaik (FEDS 2015-93), this work models wage growth and core PCE price inflation as regime … price inflation that becomes much larger after labor markets tighten beyond a certain point. The results are informative for … assessing the likelihood and risks of meeting certain inflation targets on a sustained basis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011578735
A statistically significant relationship between the unemployment gap and inflation can be found for a clear majority … slack on inflation can often be dominated by other shocks, including imported inflation. The current Secretariat Phillips … curve specification assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s target, although some experimentation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012202854
In recent years, inflation in the euro area has failed to decelerate decisively while cyclical slack built up in the … analysis conducted on two decades of quarterly data covering 17 countries yields a yes on both counts. First, inflation is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012444759