Part I. Identification and Efficient Estimation: 1. Incredible structural inference Thomas J. Rothenberg; 2. Structural equation models in human behavior genetics Arthur S. Goldberger; 3. Unobserved heterogeneity and estimation of average partial effects Jeffrey M. Wooldridge; 4. On specifying...

Unpredictability arises from intrinsic stochastic variation, unexpected instances of outliers, and unanticipated extrinsic shifts of distributions. We analyze their properties, relationships, and different effects on the three arenas in the title, which suggests considering three associated...

David Hendry has made major contributions to many areas of economic forecasting. He has developed a taxonomy of forecast errors and a theory of unpredictability that have yielded valuable insights into the nature of forecasting. He has also provided new perspectives on many existing forecast...

There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. In this paper we present a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of part of the UK labour market since the mid 1960s. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive...

The view that there are many costs associated with inflation, and especially with high and variable rates of inflation, is widely held. Indeed, the governments in many Western economies have in recent years have adopted the lowering of the rate of inflation as a major objective of economic...