type="main" xml:lang="en" <title type="main">SUMMARY</title> </section> <title type="main">Fiscal policy in the EU
ARE OFFICIAL OUTPUT FORECASTS BIASED?</title> <p> We point out that official forecasts of output dynamics are crucial to the assessment of cyclically adjusted budget balances, and provide evidence that in some euro-area countries biased forecasts...</p>

The cyclically adjusted budget balance (CAB) plays a key role in the EU fiscal surveillance framework. It started off in a supporting role in the shadow of the headline defi cit and, before long, turned into the linchpin of the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact. The steep ascent was driven...

Restoring sustainable public finances in the aftermath of the Great Recession is a key challenge in most EU countries. In order to learn from history, our paper examines consolidation episodes in the EU since 1970. We shed light on the factors that favour the start of a consolidation episode and...

It is often argued that fiscal stabilisation in the euro area compares unfavourably with the USA, not least because of the perceived limitations of the stability and growth pact. This paper qualifies this perception. It examines a number of elements which are generally overlooked or not...

The global financial and economic crisis has revived the debate in the academic literature and in policy circles about the size and effectiveness of automatic fiscal stabilisers. Especially in the euro area where monetary policy is centralised and discretionary fiscal policy making is...