Was UK inflation more stable and/or less uncertain before 1914 or after 1945? We address these questions by estimating a statistical model with changing volatilities in transient and persistent components of inflation. Three conclusions emerge. First, since periods of high and low volatility...

The time-series literature reports two stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States: GNP growth is positively autocorrelated and GNP appears to have an important trend-reverting component. This paper investigates whether current real-business-cycle models are consistent with these...

In a Bayesian model, a rational-expectations Euler equation involves a learning wedge that disconnects the consumer's IMRS from the rational-expectations pricing kernel. The wedge is extremely volatile and explains the high volatility of the rational-expectations pricing kernel.