Showing 1 - 10 of 194
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011485529
We study the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads across 10 EMU countries between Q1/1999 and Q1/2010. We apply a semiparametric time-varying coefficient model to identify, to what extent an observed change in the yield spread is due to a shift in macroeconomic fundamentals or due to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010577033
Summary Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014609025
The decline in output volatility in Germany is analysed. A lower level of variance in an autoregressive model of output growth can be either due to a change in the structure of the economy (a change in the propagation mechanism) or a reduced error term variance (reduced impulses). In Germany the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005506100
Households can rely on private savings or on public unemployment insurance to hedge against the risk of becoming unemployed. These hedging mechanisms are used differently across countries. In this paper, we use a life cycle model to study the effects of unemployment on the portfolio choice of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010777102
This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) approaches to model specification in the presence of mixed-frequency data, e.g. monthly and quarterly series. MIDAS leads to parsimonious models which are based on exponential lag polynomials for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011051460
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005668440
This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) approaches to model specification in the presence of mixed-frequency data, e.g., monthly and quarterly series. MIDAS leads to parsimonious models based on exponential lag polynomials for the coefficients,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528546
This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for now- and forecasting in the presence of model uncertainty with large, unbalanced datasets. Empirically, unbalanced data is pervasive in economics and typically due to different sampling frequencies and publication delays. Two model classes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123534
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005204995