Does input trade synchronize business cycles across countries? I incorporate input trade into a dynamic multisector model with many countries, calibrate the model to match bilateral input-output data, and estimate trade-comovement regressions in simulated data. With correlated productivity...

We propose a structural dynamic factor model of a small commodity-exporting economy, using Canada as a representative case study. Combining large panel data sets of the global and do- mestic economies, sign restrictions are used to identify relevant demand and supply shocks that explain...

This paper contributes new empirical evidence on the relationship between productivity and international trade. This is accomplished using an econometric approach that combines input-output and productivity data, which allows a more detailed tracking of the relationship between trade in...

This report presents descriptive evidence of specialisation trends and investigates empirically their causes and consequences, analysing the role of policies in this process. Then, based on the insights from the backward looking analysis, it draws global trade and specialisation scenarios up to...

This paper presents descriptive evidence of specialisation trends and investigates empirically their causes and consequences, analysing the role of policies in this process. Then, based on the insights from the backward looking analysis, it draws global trade and specialisation scenarios up to...

Most low-income countries export mainly unprocessed commodities. Yet, in their pursuit of structural transformation, they also seek a more diversified economic structure, including developing a strong manufacturing sector to create jobs and spur innovation as in more advanced economies. What is...

Brazil, like other natural resource-exporting countries, has benefited from a sharp increase in commodity prices over the last few years. To investigate the possible impact of terms-of-trade gains on the real economy, this paper estimates normalised quadratic input demand and output supply...

The constant market share analysis framework is used to decompose changes in Spain’s share of the global market for goods exports into competitiveness and structural effects (i.e. the impact of specialisation, either in product or geographical terms) over 1996-2013. As other high-income...

Portugal has notably increased its international openness over recent decades, with exports’ share of GDP rising by 20 percentage points since 1993. This analysis couples microdata with panel regression techniques to investigate the drivers of Portuguese export growth over the 1995-2016...

The aim of the paper is to compare the growth and external performances of Germany and Italy in the 1999-2009 ten-year period, i.e., from the advent of European Monetary Union (EMU) up to the financial crisis. Although both economies have been dubbed export-driven growth models in the past, the...