In this paper, we formulate a statistical model of inflation that combines data on survey expectations and the inflation target set by central banks.. Our model produces inflation forecasts that are aligned with survey expectations, thereby integrating the predictive power of the survey...

We analyze the causal effects of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth by considering whether these effects are cycle phase specific. Employing a bivariate Smooth Transition EGARCH-M model for the G7 countries during 1957–2009, we find strong nonlinearities....

Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, a fact often neglected in modelling consumer price inflation. This study, the first of its kind for an emerging market country, investigates gains to inflation forecast accuracy by aggregating weighted forecasts of the sub-component price indices,...

This paper sets out to establish possible causes of inflation in Namibia. These are: growth in Namibia’s money supply, aggregate demand and domestic costs of production; and pass-through of South Africa’s prices and costs to domestic prices in Namibia. This paper argues that inflation in...

This study provides cross country robust evidence on interdependencies among inflation, output growth and respective uncertainties for the current era of low inflation policies. We attribute the extant empirical disagreement on these relations to the fact that long sampling periods and single...

This paper explores bidirectional linkage between inflation and its uncertainty by observing monthly data of 11 Eastern European countries. The methodological approach comprises two steps. First, inflation uncertainty series have been created by choosing an optimal Generalized Autoregressive...

The paper estimates the household labor earning process using the March Current Population Survey 1968–2011. GMM estimates confirm that the results in Storesletten et al. (2004) still hold in a much larger data set over a longer period. The persistent idiosyncratic risk is strongly...

The four papers in this issue are part of a collective effort coordinated by the ECB and European National Central Banks, the Eurosystem's Wage Dynamics Network Survey. They provide new and systematic evidence on wage and price flexibility in Europe and attempt to explain their determinants.

This paper uses a variety of empirical methods to examine the apparent differences in monetary policy stances as between the United States and other G7 economies, notably those in the euro area, during the period of sharp increases in oil and other commodity prices in the first half of 2008. In...

Starting from the standard Gordon inflation model, which explains price changes by inertia, demand shocks, and supply shocks but excludes wages, the first part of this paper returns wages to the analysis by developing a model that includes both price and wage equations. The model allows for...