Calomiris, Charles W.; Harris, Joanna; Mamaysky, Harry; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We introduce FDIF, a measure of Fed communication surprise based on the text of FOMC statements. FDIF measures the ….g., credit spreads) is associated with negative macroeconomic forecast revisions; the opposite holds for procyclical variables …. Industries that hedge bad FDIF news earn low returns on FOMC announcement days, but high returns on non-FOMC days. The opposite …