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This paper complements a recently published study (Janczura and Weron in AStA-Adv Stat Anal 96(3):385–407, <CitationRef CitationID="CR38">2012</CitationRef>) on efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models. Here, we propose a new goodness-of-fit testing scheme for the marginal distribution of such models. We consider models...</citationref>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010998854
In this paper we discuss the calibration of models built on mean-reverting processes combined with Markov regime-switching (MRS). We propose a method that greatly reduces the computational burden induced by the introduction of independent regimes and perform a simulation study to test its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010998860
An important issue in fitting stochastic models to electricity spot prices is the estimation of a component to deal with trends and seasonality in the data. Unfortunately, estimation routines for the long-term and short-term seasonal pattern are usually quite sensitive to extreme observations,...
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Property claim services (PCS) provides indices for losses resulting from catastrophic events in the US. In this paper, we study these indices and take a closer look at distributions underlying insurance claims. Surprisingly, the lognormal distribution seems to give a better fit than the Paretian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011064058
One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed models has not been a major...
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